Two August forecasts scored daily against real results. The new sheet (frozen 14 Aug) keeps the client's online revenue plan and email calendar, replaces her subscription line with the renewal-book model, and adds a daily ad spend plan. The client sheet is scored as she built it. One variable differs between them (subscriptions), so the accuracy gap between the two sheets measures the subs model directly. Kept separate from the KC Financial Dashboard until cost inputs are settled.
| Revenue | Ad spend | |
|---|---|---|
| New sheet projected landing (actuals + remaining forecast) | £218,165 | £54,984 |
| Client sheet full-month target | £225,695 | n/a (no spend plan) |
| KC Dashboard predicted landing | £170,898 | £27,064 |
| KC Dashboard stretch plan | £189,704 | £26,945 |
| Actual to date (complete days + today so far) | £90,279 | £20,434 |
MAE = average daily error. Bias = cumulative forecast vs cumulative actual (positive = forecast too high). The fair race between the two sheets runs 14-31 Aug, the window both forecasts cover from their freeze dates. Subs rows validate the renewal-book model directly; days 1-13 for the model are its out-of-sample backtest.
| Forecast | Days scored | MAE / day | Cum bias | Cum forecast | Cum actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue - client sheet (full month) | 13 | £652 | 6.1% | £80,707 | £76,097 | |
| Subs - renewal-book model (incl. 1-13 backtest) | 13 | £236 | 7.4% | £22,995 | £21,403 | |
| Subs - client sheet (full month) | 13 | £298 | 18.1% | £25,277 | £21,403 |
Spend plan = client online target / 2.9 (the observed non-subscription MER through 13 Aug). Cum Δ columns: actual minus forecast, running. Greyed rows are future days; today is marked and excluded from scoring until complete.
| Day | Calendar | Ad spend | Subscriptions | Online | Total revenue | Cum Δ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan | Actual | Model | Client | Actual | Client | Actual | New | Client | Actual | New | Client | ||
| 1 Sat | Orangery scent-of-month drop | £1,178 | £2,359 | £3,621 | £2,974 | £4,930 | £5,954 | £7,289 | £8,551 | £8,928 | +£377 | ||
| 2 Sun | £1,285 | £1,892 | £1,948 | £1,804 | £3,500 | £3,327 | £5,392 | £5,448 | £5,131 | +£60 | |||
| 3 Mon | Aug Bday Gift Guide email | £1,243 | £1,874 | £2,249 | £1,999 | £4,500 | £3,262 | £6,374 | £6,749 | £5,261 | −£1,428 | ||
| 4 Tue | £1,269 | £1,708 | £1,994 | £1,688 | £4,000 | £3,415 | £5,708 | £5,994 | £5,103 | −£2,319 | |||
| 5 Wed | Orangery Reviews email | £1,382 | £1,711 | £1,748 | £1,192 | £4,500 | £4,564 | £6,211 | £6,248 | £5,756 | −£2,811 | ||
| 6 Thu | £1,318 | £1,731 | £1,716 | £1,717 | £4,000 | £4,183 | £5,731 | £5,716 | £5,901 | −£2,626 | |||
| 7 Fri | £1,598 | £1,599 | £1,549 | £1,483 | £4,000 | £4,176 | £5,599 | £5,549 | £5,660 | −£2,516 | |||
| 8 Sat | Summer at Home email | £1,713 | £1,679 | £2,164 | £1,451 | £4,500 | £5,048 | £6,179 | £6,664 | £6,499 | −£2,681 | ||
| 9 Sun | £2,026 | £1,580 | £1,285 | £1,085 | £4,000 | £5,115 | £5,580 | £5,285 | £6,200 | −£1,765 | |||
| 10 Mon | £1,477 | £1,576 | £1,660 | £1,390 | £4,000 | £4,283 | £5,576 | £5,660 | £5,673 | −£1,752 | |||
| 11 Tue | Emily Doran teaser | £1,390 | £1,576 | £1,560 | £1,297 | £4,500 | £3,491 | £6,076 | £6,060 | £4,788 | −£3,025 | ||
| 12 Wed | £1,547 | £1,897 | £1,749 | £1,627 | £4,000 | £4,453 | £5,897 | £5,749 | £6,079 | −£2,694 | |||
| 13 Thu | 24-hour email | £1,516 | £1,813 | £2,034 | £1,696 | £5,000 | £3,422 | £6,813 | £7,034 | £5,118 | −£4,610 | ||
| 14 Fri | Emily Doran launch | £1,493 | £1,709 | £1,179 | £957 | £12,000 | £13,225 | £13,709 | £13,179 | £14,182… | |||
| 15 Sat | £2,075 | £1,909 | £2,721 | £6,000 | £7,909 | £8,721 | |||||||
| 16 Sun | Emily Doran email | £2,075 | £1,496 | £1,259 | £6,000 | £7,496 | £7,259 | ||||||
| 17 Mon | £1,725 | £1,646 | £1,387 | £5,000 | £6,646 | £6,387 | |||||||
| 18 Tue | Tomato Vine | £2,075 | £1,537 | £1,797 | £6,000 | £7,537 | £7,797 | ||||||
| 19 Wed | £1,725 | £1,528 | £1,456 | £5,000 | £6,528 | £6,456 | |||||||
| 20 Thu | Tomato Vine | £2,075 | £1,544 | £2,138 | £6,000 | £7,544 | £8,138 | ||||||
| 21 Fri | £1,725 | £1,294 | £1,021 | £5,000 | £6,294 | £6,021 | |||||||
| 22 Sat | Tomato Vine | £2,075 | £1,403 | £1,523 | £6,000 | £7,403 | £7,523 | ||||||
| 23 Sun | £1,725 | £1,365 | £573 | £5,000 | £6,365 | £5,573 | |||||||
| 24 Mon | £1,725 | £1,622 | £1,827 | £5,000 | £6,622 | £6,827 | |||||||
| 25 Tue | Bank holiday outdoor push | £3,450 | £1,702 | £2,103 | £10,000 | £11,702 | £12,103 | ||||||
| 26 Wed | £2,250 | £1,734 | £2,067 | £6,500 | £8,234 | £8,567 | |||||||
| 27 Thu | £2,075 | £2,022 | £2,588 | £6,000 | £8,022 | £8,588 | |||||||
| 28 Fri | £1,725 | £2,026 | £3,684 | £5,000 | £7,026 | £8,684 | |||||||
| 29 Sat | Last Tomato Vine | £2,075 | £1,889 | £2,191 | £6,000 | £7,889 | £8,191 | ||||||
| 30 Sun | £1,900 | £1,799 | £2,800 | £5,500 | £7,299 | £8,300 | |||||||
| 31 Mon | Bank hol - diffusers last chance | £2,075 | £1,843 | £674 | £6,000 | £7,843 | £6,674 | ||||||
Contribution margin 56.5%. First-purchase break-even CPA £24.74. Observed August CAC £37.30 vs the plan's seasonal assumption of £24.72 (built on last August's cheap auctions, which have not repeated). At current efficiency each new customer is roughly £12-13 underwater on first order and recovered through subscription LTV. Cost inputs are under audit (duplicate-SKU COGS conflicts in Shopify) - treat profit math as directional until resolved.
node update-tracker.cjs in this folder.